Gold Shines Bright in 2025: 25% Surge Makes Bullion the Star Performer


Gold Surges 25% in Early 2025

Gold has delivered a standout performance in the first four months of 2025, surging nearly 25% and hitting all-time highs on both MCX (Multi Commodity Exchange of India) and COMEX (Commodity Exchange, U.S.), according to a report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd (MOFSL).

In comparison, silver has also experienced a rally—rising by 15% on COMEX—though the scale and pace of its performance have lagged behind gold.

What’s Driving the Rally?

According to MOFSL, the rally in gold has been driven by:

  • Heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly in Asia and the Middle East

  • Escalating U.S.-China trade wars, with steep tariffs and retaliatory measures

  • A global flight to safety amid fears of stagflation and slowing growth

  • Weakening of the U.S. dollar, which has depreciated by over 7% against major global currencies in 2025

  • Central bank purchases, particularly from emerging economies like China

Trump’s Tariffs and Global Trade Tensions

One of the key contributors to the bullish momentum has been the aggressive trade stance of President Donald Trump. Recent U.S. tariffs imposed on Chinese imports—up to 245%—have been met with retaliatory tariffs from Beijing.

This has sparked widespread investor anxiety and fuelled concerns over a prolonged global slowdown, or even stagflation in the U.S., creating further support for safe-haven assets like gold.

Fed’s Policy and Gold’s Resilience

While the Federal Reserve cut rates three times in 2024, it has taken a “wait and watch” stance in 2025. Chair Jerome Powell remains cautious amid rising inflationary pressures, even as Trump pushes for additional cuts to stimulate growth.

Despite a temporary correction after Trump’s tariff announcements, gold has shown strong resilience, quickly rebounding and maintaining its bullish outlook.

Price Outlook: Strong Support and Resistance Levels

Motilal Oswal has highlighted the following key technical levels:

  • MCX Gold:

    • Support: ₹91,000 per 10 grams

    • Resistance: ₹99,000 per 10 grams

  • COMEX Gold:

    • Support: $3,100 per ounce

    • Resistance: $3,400 per ounce

According to Navneet Damani, Group Senior Vice President and Head of Commodity & Currency Research at MOFSL:

“In an environment dominated by policy uncertainty, inflationary pressures, and volatile geopolitics, gold continues to be a beacon of stability. We maintain a ‘buy on dips’ view for the medium to long-term.”

Central Banks Continue to Back Bullion

Emerging market central banks, especially China, have been steadily increasing their gold reserves, further strengthening the global demand for the metal. This is a critical long-term support factor for gold’s price trajectory.

India’s Bullion Market Outlook

On the domestic front, strong support at ₹91,000 and optimistic long-term projections have made gold an appealing asset class for Indian investors. The metal's performance has also become a critical hedge in light of global uncertainties and volatile equity markets.

Conclusion: The Gold Run May Be Far From Over

With geopolitical volatility, inflation risks, and policy unpredictability persisting, gold is expected to remain a favored asset among investors. Unless there’s a major resolution in global trade dynamics, the upward momentum is likely to continue.

MOFSL maintains a constructive outlook on gold, reiterating its “buy on dips” strategy for medium- to long-term investors.


Location: Pune, Maharashtra, India

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