Monsoon to Arrive Early in Kerala in 2025: A Positive Sign for Indian Economy
Early Monsoon Onset Predicted for 2025
In a significant meteorological update, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast that the Southwest Monsoon will likely hit the Kerala coast around May 27, 2025, with a model error margin of ±4 days. This is earlier than the normal onset date of June 1, marking a strong and timely beginning to the monsoon season.
Monsoon Onset Trends (2020–2024)
As shown in the data provided by IMD, early monsoon onsets have been recorded in 2022 and 2024 — both years seeing the monsoon arrive before the normal onset date:
| Year | Actual Onset Date | Forecast Onset Date |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 1st June | 5th June |
| 2021 | 3rd June | 31st May |
| 2022 | 29th May | 27th May |
| 2023 | 8th June | 4th June |
| 2024 | 30th May | 31st May |
This forecast for 2025 could make it the third early onset in six years, showcasing IMD’s increasing precision in forecasting and the shifting patterns of seasonal rainfall.
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Why the Kerala Onset Matters
The onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala is a critical climatic indicator, marking the transition from hot, dry weather to the rainy season across India. This event also signifies the start of the Kharif crop season, and is vital for Indian agriculture and water reservoir levels.
Economic & Agricultural Impact
The early arrival of monsoon rains in 2024 brought about a four-year high in rainfall, with 108% of the Long Period Average (LPA) at 934.8 mm, against a norm of 868.6 mm. This led to increased agricultural output and better sowing conditions for the Kharif season, supporting rural livelihoods and stabilizing food inflation.
Looking ahead, IMD has forecast that monsoon rainfall for 2025 is expected to be “above normal,” at over 104% of the LPA, potentially making it another beneficial year for agriculture and overall economic growth.
IMD Forecast Accuracy
IMD has been releasing operational monsoon onset forecasts since 2005, with a success rate of 95% over 20 years. From 2020 to 2024, IMD's forecasts have been largely accurate, further validating the credibility of the 2025 prediction.
Agricultural Dependency on Monsoon
Over 50% of India's agricultural land is rain-fed, making timely and adequate monsoon rains crucial. Particularly in the Kharif season (June to September), monsoons directly impact the sowing of key crops like rice, pulses, cotton, and maize.
Early and sufficient rains help:
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Reduce irrigation costs
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Improve crop yield
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Support food security
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Boost rural employment
Conclusion
An early monsoon onset in May 2025, combined with an above-normal seasonal rainfall forecast, could prove highly beneficial for Indian agriculture, power generation, and overall economic momentum. With the IMD continuing to refine its forecasting models, stakeholders across agriculture, industry, and policymaking can prepare more confidently for the season ahead.
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