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Introduction: Budget 2026 at a Crucial Economic Juncture The Union Budget 2026, to be presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on 1 February 2026 , comes at a defining moment for India’s macroeconomic and fiscal trajectory. Just two days ahead of the Budget speech, industry stakeholders, economists, and policymakers are closely watching government signals on growth, inflation management, fiscal consolidation, and sectoral allocations. This will be Nirmala Sitharaman’s ninth consecutive Budget , marking a rare continuity in fiscal leadership. Notably, this is also the first time in over a decade that the Union Budget will be presented on a Sunday , underscoring its exceptional political and economic significance. Constitutional Basis of the Union Budget Article 112 of the Constitution of India The Union Budget is constitutionally referred to as the “Annual Financial Statement” under Article 112 . It mandates the government to present estimated receipts and expenditures of the ...

Background of the Crisis India’s largest airline, IndiGo, faced unprecedented operational disruption between December 3 and 5, 2024 , resulting in 2,507 flight cancellations and 1,852 delays , stranding over three lakh passengers across the country. The disruption followed the enforcement of revised Flight Duty Time Limitation (FDTL) norms, which imposed stricter caps on pilot duty hours and enhanced mandatory rest requirements. The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) constituted a four-member inquiry committee to investigate the causes of the breakdown. Based on its findings, the regulator imposed a record financial penalty of ₹22.2 crore , issued warnings to senior leadership, and mandated sweeping systemic reforms within the airline.

Background: Policy Shift in Indirect Taxation on Tobacco and Cigarettes The Government of India has notified that, effective 1 February 2026, additional excise duty will be imposed on tobacco products, including cigarettes, alongside the ongoing Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime. The notification follows the decision of the 56th GST Council to phase out the GST Compensation Cess framework and restructure taxation on sin goods such as cigarettes, chewing tobacco, gutkha, and pan masala. This restructuring ensures that revenue neutrality is maintained even after the withdrawal of the compensation cess mechanism. Introduction of Additional Excise Duty on Cigarettes and Tobacco Products From 1 February 2026, excise duty will be levied on tobacco products on top of the existing GST rate. The Finance Ministry has notified the Chewing Tobacco, Jarda Scented Tobacco and Gutkha Packing Machines (Capacity Determination and Collection of Duty) Rules, 2026. Under the new excise structure: Additi...

Background of the Cabinet Decision The Union Cabinet has approved a major financial relief framework for Vodafone Idea Ltd. (Vi) by freezing its Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR) dues at ₹87,695 crore as on December 31, 2025, and allowing repayment over a 10-year period from FY 2032 to FY 2041. The decision follows Vi’s representation to the government seeking relief after a series of Supreme Court orders permitted reassessment of dues in view of public interest considerations. Government Stake and Sectoral Stability Concerns The relief package is closely tied to the government’s strategic interest in Vi, where it acquired a 49% equity stake earlier this year to prevent market concentration and safeguard competition in the telecom sector. The government emphasized that Vodafone Idea’s continued existence as a viable operator is essential to prevent a duopoly and to protect nearly 200 million (20 crore) subscribers dependent on the network. The telecom sector was described as critical nation...

The recent delay in income tax refunds for FY 2024–25 has caused uncertainty among taxpayers across India. While many expected quicker processing after filing their Income Tax Returns (ITRs) by the extended deadline of September 16, several refunds are still pending. On Monday, the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) Chairman, Ravi Agrawal , provided clarity on the reasons behind these delays and the steps being taken by the department. Current Status of ITR Refunds: What the CBDT Chairman Said According to the CBDT Chairman, low-value refunds have already begun to be released , and the remaining refunds are expected to be processed by end of November or December 2024 . He clarified that the delay is largely due to the tax department identifying cases where wrongful deductions were claimed , necessitating verification before the refunds could be released. Wrongful Deduction Claims: Core Reason Behind Delays The department has detected many returns where taxpayers claimed: H...

Introduction: Remembering a Titan of Indian Industry October 9, 2025, marks the first death anniversary of Ratan Naval Tata (1937–2024) , one of India’s most respected industrialists, philanthropists, and global business icons. His name stands synonymous with trust, ethics, and nation-building. As India pays tribute to the man who shaped its modern industrial landscape, it’s important to reflect on how his vision, leadership, and humanity transformed not just the Tata Group, but India’s global image. Who Was Ratan Tata? Born on December 28, 1937 , into the prominent Tata family, Ratan Tata was the son of Naval Tata and Soonoo Commissariat . He was raised by his grandmother, Lady Navajbai Tata , at the Tata Palace in Mumbai. Educated at Cornell University , where he earned a degree in Architecture and Structural Engineering, Ratan Tata later completed the Advanced Management Program at Harvard Business School. He joined the Tata Group in 1961, starting his career at Tata Steel in Ja...

Introduction In a landmark decision, the Supreme Court of India has restored JSW Steel’s ₹19,700 crore resolution plan for Bhushan Power & Steel Ltd (BPSL). The ruling reverses the Court’s own May 2025 verdict that had ordered liquidation of the debt-ridden company, thereby reaffirming the sanctity of India’s Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC). This judgment brings clarity to one of the most contentious insolvency cases in recent years and ensures stability for lenders, resolution applicants, and the insolvency ecosystem at large. Background: The BPSL Insolvency Bhushan Power & Steel Ltd (BPSL), part of the group of 12 large corporate defaulters identified by the Reserve Bank of India in 2017, defaulted on loans exceeding ₹47,000 crore. Following a competitive bidding process, JSW Steel emerged as the top bidder in 2018, offering ₹19,700 crore. The plan received approval from 97% of lenders, was cleared by the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) in 2019, and upheld by ...

The Indian government has permitted manufacturers, packaging firms, and importers to revise the Maximum Retail Price (MRP) of unsold stock to reflect the recently announced GST reforms. The revision will be allowed until 31 December 2025 or till stocks last—whichever is earlier. Transparency in Price Revision Union Minister for Consumer Affairs, Food, and Public Distribution, Pralhad Joshi , clarified that the revised prices must reflect only GST changes . Importantly, the old MRP must remain visible on the packaging. Any increase or decrease in price should directly correspond to GST rate revisions, ensuring that companies do not exploit the reform to arbitrarily increase prices. This safeguard, Joshi stated, is aimed at transparency and protecting consumer interests . Guidelines for Implementation According to the Ministry of Consumer Affairs notice: The new MRP can be stamped, stuck, or printed on the packaging. Overwriting is not allowed ; the original MRP must re...

The Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council has approved the most comprehensive restructuring of India’s GST system since its inception in 2017 , cutting taxes on over 90% of goods. The reforms, announced by Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman after the 56th GST Council meeting , simplify the GST structure into two principal slabs— 5% and 18% , with a special 40% tax rate for luxury and sin goods. The new rates will take effect from September 22, 2025 . Largest Tax Reform Since 2017 The GST overhaul aims to boost domestic consumption at a time when India’s exports are facing global headwinds, especially due to increased tariffs from the United States. Key highlights: Reduction from four slabs (5%, 12%, 18%, 28%) to two slabs (5% and 18%) A special 40% rate for high-end goods and sin products Net revenue implication : ₹48,000 crore based on FY24 consumption data Objective: To stimulate demand, ease compliance, and simplify GST for businesses Centre’s Push for...

Trump's 'Good Step' or Geopolitical Misunderstanding? Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent comments have reignited international debate on India’s energy policy. Speaking to the media, Trump claimed that India may be halting purchases of Russian oil , calling it “a good step”—a statement that echoed earlier assertions made by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. But India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) responded swiftly, clarifying that no such decision has been made , and reaffirming that India’s energy procurement is guided by national interest and market dynamics . The Background: What's Driving the Noise? On July 31, media reports (including Reuters) claimed that Indian state-owned refineries had suspended Russian oil purchases in response to narrowing discounts and U.S. tariff threats . This fueled speculation in Washington and beyond, culminating in Trump’s Friday remarks. Yet, according to senior Indian officials, this narrative is misleading ...

🔍 Geopolitical Tensions Threaten India’s Fiscal Stability As tensions between Iran and Israel escalate, the economic fallout is becoming more visible—particularly for energy-import-dependent countries like India. A recent report by ICRA has flagged that if crude oil prices jump by $10/barrel amid West Asia instability, India’s Current Account Deficit (CAD) could widen by 0.3% of GDP . This would mean a jump of $13–14 billion in net oil imports, putting pressure on the country’s balance of payments. Currently, ICRA estimates India's CAD for FY26 at 1.2–1.3% of GDP , assuming oil remains around $70–75 per barrel . However, if prices move into the $80–90 range , the CAD could hit 1.5–1.6% , significantly impacting the rupee’s stability against the US dollar. 🚢 Strait of Hormuz: A Critical Choke Point The biggest concern? Iran’s warning to close the Strait of Hormuz —a crucial maritime route through which 20% of the world’s crude and LNG supplies are shipped. India imports...

🇮🇳 India’s Market Borrowing Shows Disciplined Stability: SBI Report India’s sovereign borrowing strategy is evolving with stability and prudence , even as its economic expansion requires rising capital. The State Bank of India (SBI) in its latest research (as of June 13, 2025) confirms that net borrowings remain under control , and the government is showing fiscal restraint in line with FRBM (Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management) Act objectives.

India Maintains Strong Growth Amid Global Headwinds India’s economy has once again defied global slowdowns and inflationary pressures. According to the CareEdge Economic Pathways Report , India’s real GDP grew by 7.4% in Q4 FY25 , pushing the overall annual growth to 6.5% , beating analyst expectations. Though slightly moderated from the 8.4% average of the past two years, this growth solidifies India’s place among the fastest-growing major economies. Key growth drivers: Construction sector surged 10.8% in Q4. Manufacturing and private investments improved , though consumption slightly slowed. Rural demand stayed robust due to rising wages, despite mixed urban demand. Retail inflation cooled to 3.2% in April 2025, the lowest since August 2019, with food inflation easing due to strong Rabi harvests and water reserves. However, concerns remain over falling household savings , which declined for a third straight year to 18.1% of GDP , with financial liabilities risin...

 

 

RBI’s Risk Buffer Strategy Signals Long-Term Financial Resilience In a recent report, ICICI Bank highlighted that the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) decision to maintain higher risk buffers will significantly strengthen its balance sheet while providing a stable foundation for India's macroeconomic outlook . This comes at a time when global oil prices are anticipated to stay benign, offering additional support to India’s inflation and fiscal management efforts. According to the report, the RBI’s robust risk buffers not only enhance its financial resilience but also act as a macroeconomic tailwind . ICICI Bank noted: “We believe higher risk buffer by RBI strengthens its balance sheet and provides a tailwind for India’s macroeconomic fundamentals when oil prices too are expected to be benign.” RBI’s Balance Sheet Expands at a Slower Pace Than GDP Growth The RBI’s balance sheet grew to ₹76.3 trillion in FY25, marking an 8.2% increase from the previous fiscal year. How...

India’s Economic Growth Surges in Q4 FY25 India’s economy continues to assert its strength on the global stage. The latest GDP numbers indicate that the Indian economy grew by 7.4% in Q4 of FY25 , a sharp increase from the 6.2% growth in Q3 , and higher than the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) projection of 7.2% for the same period. For the full fiscal year 2024-25 (FY25), India’s economy registered a 6.5% growth , in line with estimates and maintaining its position as the world’s fastest-growing major economy . Key Drivers of Growth: Domestic Consumption & Government Investment Economists attribute this robust growth to strong domestic consumption , sustained government capital investment , and a relatively low dependence on exports . According to Manoranjan Sharma , Chief Economist at Infomerics Valuation and Rating, this growth reinforces India’s economic resilience and its consistent lead among global peers. Rural Recovery and Sectoral Expansion Anshuman Magazine , Chairman a...

Sensex and Nifty Rally on Positive Global Cues Indian equity indices rebounded sharply on renewed optimism over a potential India-US trade deal and favorable global cues. The BSE Sensex surged 1,200.18 points , or 1.48% , to close at 82,530.74 , while the Nifty 50 climbed 395.20 points , or 1.60% , ending the day at 25,062.10 . This rally came after a subdued start to the trading session, where the Nifty 50 briefly dipped to an intraday low of 24,494 before staging a strong recovery past the psychological 25,000 mark , reaching a high of 25,116 . Broad Market Participation Signals Strong Sentiment Market breadth was overwhelmingly positive. Out of all the traded stocks, 2,511 advanced , 1,302 declined , and 139 remained unchanged , indicating broad-based buying interest across the board. Among the top gainers on the NSE were: Hero MotoCorp JSW Steel Trent Tata Motors HCL Technologies On the volatility front, the India VIX (a measure of market volatility) fe...